The true odds, proven.
A paid, evidence-backed decision oracle for objectively resolvable weather, economic-data, Henry Hub natural-gas, and supported sports markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Agents and individuals receive independent, deterministic probabilities with uncertainty, executable bid/ask comparisons, estimated fees, expected value, calibration evidence, and tamper-evident receipts.
How a decision is made
1. Read the rule
Bind the exact resolution rule, settlement source, resolution time, entity/location, strike, and which side YES prices. If any of these can't be bound, the oracle refuses rather than guesses.
2. Compute the probability
A deterministic engine — never an LLM — produces the independent probability from real-world sources, with an uncertainty interval and an explicit model version.
3. Compare price and cost
Read the executable bid/ask (not last trade), estimate venue fees, and compute net expected value. An edge is only called actionable if it clears both the oracle's own uncertainty and real trading friction.
4. Explain the uncertainty
Surface source and model disagreement, the model range, and the largest outlier — so the confidence is legible, not asserted.
5. Commit a receipt
Hash-commit the decision into an append-only, tamper-evident ledger, linked by request id. A receipt exists whether the market resolves or not.
6. Resolve and calibrate
When the market settles, record the outcome against the precommitted forecast and update the public calibration record — losses kept, not hidden.
Three paid services
rwoo.best_signals
POST /v1/signals
Ranks open Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless opportunities across supported weather, economics, Henry Hub natural gas, and sports markets after freshness, price, spread, model, and evidence checks.
rwoo.check_market
POST /v1/check-market
Evaluates one supported weather, economics, Henry Hub, or sports market on Kalshi, Polymarket, or Limitless, returning probability, uncertainty, executable-price EV, source trace, calibration, and a receipt.
rwoo.cross_venue_edge
POST /v1/cross-venue-edge
Compares equivalent contracts across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless; verifies event rules, resolution authority, timing, and YES orientation; then reports conservative executable edge and risk.
rwoo.get_calibration
GET /v1/calibration
Returns exact-version calibration for supported weather, economics, Henry Hub, and sports families, including independent resolution counts, probability-band results, and checkpoint status.
Twelve buyer-side execution services
Separate from the oracle. These prepare, inspect and record an order that you sign and submit from your own machine — this service never relays your trades and never holds your funds.
- Non-custodial. You derive your own venue deposit wallet locally and fund it yourself; this service never publishes a funding address and never takes custody.
- Buyer-submitted egress. You sign and post to the venue from your own network, so the venue's jurisdiction rules follow you rather than this host.
- Every identifier travels in the JSON request body. No path carries a placeholder.
- Autonomous execution is disabled. These endpoints prepare, inspect, and record; promotion to live trading stays locked until the evidence gate passes.
rwoo.execution.prepare_certification
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/prepare-certification
Durably prepares one operator-approved, minimum-size certification order with risk checks and a committed exit policy.
rwoo.execution.certification_proof
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/certification-proof
Applies buyer-machine venue proof across the certification phases and closes the session once the position is flat.
rwoo.execution.submission_package
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/submission-package
Returns the EIP-712 fields, venue URL, and settlement requirements needed to sign a prepared order locally and submit it from your own network. No private key is ever accepted.
rwoo.execution.record_submission
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/record-submission
Records the venue outcome you observed after submitting yourself. An accepted order is recorded as open, never as filled — only reconciliation establishes a fill.
rwoo.execution.prepare_exit
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/prepare-exit
Evaluates kill switch, invalidation, stop loss, time exit, and take profit against the live executable bid, returning either a hold or a SELL package to submit yourself.
rwoo.execution.record_exit
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/record-exit
Reserves a buyer-submitted exit against its position so the same shares cannot be sold twice by a polling agent.
rwoo.execution.status
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/status
Returns durable execution state and the complete transition history for one intent.
rwoo.execution.reconcile
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/reconcile
Resolves nonterminal and ambiguous venue outcomes against the venue of record.
rwoo.execution.cancel
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/cancel
Cancels a prepared intent locally, or delegates an acknowledged order to the venue adapter.
rwoo.execution.emergency_stop
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/emergency-stop
Engages the buyer-scoped, EOA-signed, replay-protected cancel-only kill switch. The direct route stays reachable without payment — payment must never stand between a buyer and halting their own trading.
rwoo.execution.emergency_status
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/emergency-status
Reports whether a buyer kill switch is engaged, when, and why.
rwoo.execution.emergency_clear
POST /v1/marketplace/execution/emergency-clear
Clears an engaged kill switch with a fresh EOA signature. Clearing is a deliberate signed action, never automatic.
A live example verdict
Pulled at request time from the current published opportunity scan — not hardcoded.
Will the minimum temperature be 66-67° on Aug 27, 2026?
- Oracle probability
- 0.0%
- Uncertainty interval
- 0.0% – 0.0%
- Confidence
- 100.0%
- Model version
- weather-ensemble-v3-power-calibrated
- Market implied
- 2.5%
- Side
- NO
- Actionable
- Yes
edge exceeds both the oracle's own uncertainty band and estimated trading friction
Why — the explanation trace
3 deterministic model/source estimates span 0.0%–0.0% (median 0.0%); gfs_seamless is furthest from the median at 0.0%. The reported confidence is 1.00.
| Model / source | Probability |
|---|---|
| ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.0% |
| gfs_seamless | 0.0% |
| icon_seamless | 0.0% |
Calibration proof
Cross-venue equivalence
A price difference is only called an edge when the two contracts are provably the same event. Classifications:
| Class | Meaning |
|---|---|
exact_equivalent | Rule, settlement authority, resolution time, and YES orientation all match. Only this class can be actionable. |
candidate_needs_rule_review | Titles align but at least one binding is unverified. Not tradeable as arbitrage. |
related_not_equivalent | Same topic, materially different contract. |
not_equivalent | Different events. |
Never risk-free. Complementary executable-price edge, subject to fill, custody, venue, cancellation, and settlement risk.
The Deterministic-Core Law
- Deterministic code produces every probability.
- An LLM may route and narrate, but may not create, alter, veto, or sanity-check a probability.
- Unsupported or ambiguous markets fail closed.
- Unknown entities never silently become probability zero.
- Every result identifies its model version.
- Every successful or refused decision remains auditable.
- Model agreement is not automatically empirical calibration confidence.
- Missing data stays missing, not zero.
- The evidence and receipt ledgers are append-only.
Evidence, receipts & the X Layer anchor
Every priced or refused decision commits a receipt into an append-only, keccak256 hash-chained ledger, linked by request id. Each record's chain hash makes after-the-fact rewriting detectable — including by the builder. Anchoring the chain head on X Layer mainnet goes through the verified OKX Agentic Wallet path; the local hash chain is always verifiable on its own. Verify a receipt →
Execution boundary
Execution is not the product. Funded trading is optional, gated, configured live, and non-custodial. Autonomous live execution stays locked until the relevant calibration evidence gate passes; certification never grants that promotion.
What is covered — honestly
Supported
Weather — Daily temperature maxima/minima and precipitation for verified stations.
Atlantic hurricanes — NOAA-resolved seasonal named-storm, hurricane, and major-hurricane count thresholds.
Henry Hub natural gas — EIA-resolved calendar-year daily spot-price maximum thresholds priced from official daily history.
Economics — Headline & core CPI, GDP, unemployment, payrolls, Fed rate decisions, and recession-quarter nowcasts against official releases.
Sports — World Cup winner and stage-of-elimination markets currently produce candidates. Tennis, MLB, and club-soccer match engines are conditional; NBA, NHL, esports, props, and unsupported outrights fail closed as detailed below.
Deferred (fails closed)
— Markets whose resolution rule, source, time, entity, strike, or YES side cannot be bound.
— Venues whose fee schedule is not yet verified (edge is disclosed, never guessed).
— Anything requiring subjective judgement rather than a data source.
Build on it
Discover the services, read the schemas, and call the API.